Is Mexico going the way of Venezuela, with political violence leading to a hostile government next door?
BBC NEWS | Americas | Mexico deputies stop Fox speech
The original count saw Felipe Calderon - of the National Action Party (PAN) - win just over half a percentage point more support than Mr Lopez Obrador, of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).I am highly suspicious of razor-thin national electoral results. I'm no sadistician, and probability gave me a headache in college, but I can't shake the sense that razor-thin national election results are very low-probability events with chicanery the most likely explanation.
It's easy for me to sympathize with a Mexican citizen who voted for Lopez Obrador as he heads out to raise hell at the demonstration.
If there is a good explanation for razor-thin national election results I have not found it. The closest I've found had to do with the likelihood of razor-thin results occurring in a small number of political subdivisions of a larger electorate in which a close election is forecast, but that's not the same thing.
Do razor-thin national election results indicate a high likelihood of chicanery? Is there a better electoral system?
So far I think the answer to both questions is Yes. I'm not particularly hopeful though.